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Can the Lebanese stalemate be resolved in
February 2008?
Lebanonwire.com 2/17/2008
The year 2007 was really tough on Lebanon. The first government formed after the
exit of the Syrian forces struggled to survive despite the resignation of six
members that included all the Shiite ministers. However its accomplishments were
severely curtailed by the lack of support from the partially de-legitimized
President and various levels of opposition from nearly half the Lebanese
population. Parliament was practically closed for the whole year except for an
occasional limited one day session. Terrorism continued throughout the year in
the form of bombings and assassinations and culminated with the Fatah Al Islam
flare up which resulted in a protracted battle with the Lebanese army. A heavy
price in blood and treasure had to be paid before the proud and patriotic army
could achieve victory.
Throughout 2007 Lebanon was for all practical purposes almost equally divided
between supporters of the struggling government and those of the opposition
which comprised slightly less than half the members of parliament, but benefited
from having the speaker within its ranks. The chronic polarization, the
excessive lack of confidence between the two political camps and the conflicting
personal concerns and interests produced a lot of anxiety and uncertainty about
the election of a successor to President Lahoud whose extended term ended in
November. This resulted in major difficulty to secure a quorum in parliament in
order to proceed constitutionally with the presidential election. The situation
was further complicated by a strong perception of an alignment of one group with
the USA, Europe and most of the Arab countries and the other with Syria and
Iran. Thus the internal polarization and conflicting personal interests and
agendas were complicated by a difficult and dangerous geopolitical atmosphere
resulting from the external confrontations. Syria is accused of all kinds of
efforts to block the International Tribunal, which it claims will be politicized
by its enemies to destabilize its current regime. Iran appears determined to
acquire nuclear capabilities which are alarming many Arab neighbors as well as
the United States and Europe not to mention Israel. The Israelis, known to be
prevention hyperconscious could trigger a new war at any time by attacking the
Iranian nuclear sites and/or Hezbollah which they see as an extension of the
Iranian danger immediately at their borders. The Syrian & Iranian influence in
Lebanon is enhanced by the help and support provided to Hezbollah.
The complicated internal and external situation and the deficiency in visionary
and patriotic leadership resulted in failure to elect a successor to President
Lahoud. Nevertheless, after a somewhat short period of Presidential vacuum a
remarkable development occurred when the two political groups reached an
agreement on a consensus candidate who is believed to be most suited to reunify
the country. However, unfortunate and to a certain extent unknown factors
resulted in delay of the final vote and the presidential vacuum continued into
2008. The year 2007 did not end before the occurrence of the additional
terrorist assassination of General Francois Hage whose name was strongly
associated with the victory over the Fatah Al Islam in Nahr El Bared. This
reprehensive crime not only perturbed the relief that resulted from the
agreement on a high caliber consensus candidate, but also raised concerns about
sinister forces aiming at destabilizing the Lebanese army.
The year 2008 is seeing much of the same. The presidential election continues to
be scheduled and postponed, despite the consensus reached on General Michel
Suleiman, due supposedly to controversial disagreements on governance after the
election. A bomb which exploded near a US Embassy vehicle resulted in new fears
of scaring away foreign diplomats and visitors. The assassination of Wisam Eid a
key police intelligence leader added concern about some evil conspiracy
determined to further rattle the security of the country. The Mar Mikhael clash
of opposition street rioters with the Lebanese army and the resulting deaths
produced further anxiety about possible evil elements determined to destabilize
the army or start a new civil war. The economy continues to teeter on shaky
grounds and some funds pledged for Lebanon may be withheld by the some donor
States until a semblance of normalcy and stability can be achieved. The exodus
of youth and intellect continues and accelerates. Pessimism is dominant among
the Lebanese population as well as the expatriate community.
Each terrorist incident results in a flood of condemnations from every
direction. Yet not a single significant culprit or perpetrator has been
identified and punished. The International Tribunal, though approved, has not
yet been fully formed and God only knows when it will start functioning and
whether or not it will be able to convincingly identify real culprits and secure
that justice is achieved.
In the midst of this doom and gloom atmosphere there are some positive signs
that should not be overlooked. Despite sinister & evil forces constantly trying
to ignite a new civil war, violence has remained rather contained. The
unfortunate loss of life on black Sunday (January 27) constituted a serious &
dangerous close call. All indications seem to suggest the work of a "fifth
column" executed by enemies of the Lebanese people. It is hoped that the ongoing
investigation will reveal who was responsible & aggressive action can be taken
to bring the culprits to justice, contain the incident & appropriately
compensate the families of the martyrs & victims. Tighter precautions should be
taken during any future demonstrations, which we hope should be kept to the
absolute minimum possible. We are gratified that both the Hariri assassination
commemoration by the March 14 group & the Mughnieh funeral by Hezbollah on
February 14 remained peaceful & uneventful.
Remarkably, in spite of severe inter-confessional and intra-confessional
tensions, there is no significant fighting between Sunni and Shiite groups or
between Christians and Moslems, thus demonstrating up to this time remarkable
Lebanese maturity and reluctance to be dragged into internal wars again. In fact
the majority of Lebanese does not want any war at all and would much prefer to
solve remaining problems with Israel through indirect diplomacy. The choice
between diplomatic efforts to recuperate the Shebaa farms versus armed
resistance constitutes a major divide underlying the current political
polarization between the parliamentary majority & the opposition. Let us hope
that "black Sunday" will serve as a warning against all forms of violence that
can only bring death and destruction to no avail.
Another major positive factor on the Lebanese scene is the fact that consensus
was achieved around a candidate most suited to reunite the Lebanese population
and bridge the gap between the March 14 parliamentary majority and the
opposition. General Michel Suleiman has been credited with wisely and skillfully
protecting and strengthening the unity of the Lebanese army, the most respected
institution that remained immune to the cancerous or paralytic divisions which
threaten or have started destroying so many other Lebanese institutions. We are
relieved that the "black Sunday" disaster did not tarnish, damage or destabilize
Lebanon's most important defense line and that all concerned will do their
utmost to limit the damage and consequences of this unfortunate catastrophe. We
are gratified to hear of good progress in such direction and that General
Suleiman is playing a key role in protecting the army while working diligently
to see that justice is achieved and civil peace is secured.
More than two years ago a friend in the US State Department said that the
Lebanese should take advantage of the world attention their country was
receiving to reach consensus and unity in order to solve the pressing problems
and secure a path to real independence and full sovereignty. Many politicians
failed to seize the opportunity and kept fighting for petty or shortsighted
interests and/or mortgaged themselves to outside influences and goals. Important
knowledgeable and sincere authorities agree with Patriarch Sfeir's recent
statement that undue number of politicians are so focused on selfish or narrow
concerns that they are completely distracted from national or community
interests.
World attention now is focused on other areas with Pakistan and Gaza's problems
moving up in priority. The European initiative to help Lebanon secure the
presidential election demonstrated more naiveté and goodwill than substance and
effectiveness. The United States' attention is now distracted to a certain
extent by its own presidential election process. Yet the dangers threatening
Lebanon and the whole Middle East continue to increase and worsen. Nobody seems
to know how many extremist terror groups other than Fatah Al Islam have
established bases in Lebanon particularly inside the Palestinian camps. These do
not constitute danger just for Lebanon, but also for the whole Arab World and
the broader Middle East.
In the US the neoconservative hawks may be somewhat down but definitely not
completely out. Many salivate about a strike at Iran and any incident such as
the Iranian speed boat harassment of US Navy ships could accidentally trigger an
unwanted and undesirable war. One should also never forget the Israeli element
and the anxieties produced there by President AhmadiNijad's rhetoric. There are
also still rumors of neoconservative talk about regime change in Syria. We
sincerely hope that Lebanon will not be used to trigger any of the above, nor be
dragged into such adventurism. We realize, nonetheless that there are
differences of opinion among the various expatriate groups. Some now feel that
the real solution for Lebanon's problems necessitates an international
intervention under UN chapter 7, despite the risks of such a move. Thus allowing
the current Lebanese crisis to simmer indefinitely presents significant risks to
all concerned. And the best, fastest & safest solution remains the prompt
election of the consensus candidate for the Presidency.
The most reassuring element in the midst of this difficult environment is the
wisdom and apparent steadfastness of a united and unifying Arab initiative
working for the election of General Suleiman without further delay. A person
with his track record and credibility certainly has the potential to unify the
country and restore optimal relations with Syria without sacrificing Lebanese
dignity or sovereignty. We salute the highly qualified previous presidential
candidates who have selflessly urged and worked for his prompt election. Those
who are throwing around other names to reconsider for consensus may create
counterproductive doubts and delays and may possibly be either misguided or ill
intentioned. General Suleiman who apparently continues to have the support of
all well intentioned internal and external elements has the best shot at
returning to all Lebanese the sorely lacking confidence. The rescheduling of the
election to February 26 allows ample time to solve and reach agreement on the
post election governance issues. The proposal of a government of 10 ministers
for the parliamentary majority, 10 for the opposition and 10 for the president
is reasonable and appealing. However if minor touch ups are required, such may
be considered based on the confidence & trust provided by the truly independent
& patriotic consensus candidate. The issue of veto power for either political
camp should be shelved for now due to its negative connotation. During this
challenging episode in Lebanon's history the independent president should be
given the necessary power and flexibility to restore confidence and focus on the
positive and constructive work needed to unify and save the country. Yes there
are outside influences, enemy distractions, risky street behavior and continued
evil and sinister interventions to derail Lebanon from progressing towards
sanity, stability and prosperity. Nevertheless, as we stated before, the final
results for Lebanon will depend on the wisdom, courage and patriotism of its
politicians, particularly the individual members of parliament and their
leaders.
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American
Lebanese Foundation