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Lebanon Can and Should Survive and Prosper Again
06/23/2022
Since
its inception in 2004 the American Lebanese Foundation (ALF) has been
concerned and focused on addressing problems that we believed could
endanger the stability, unity or prosperity of the country. Being a
“think tank” organization, we respected its qualification as
non-political, not a lobbying entity and not registered as a foreign
agent. Our board nevertheless consisted of leaders in various areas of
life and comprised Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Many of us
had personal and political roles within local or federal elections,
which gave significant access to key decision makers in US foreign
policy.
When
a resolution was started in the US Congress aiming to nationalize
Palestinian refugees in the host countries, there was general unity in
Lebanon and within the Palestinian community against the resolution.
Syria and other Arab countries were also very concerned. The founding
president at the time and several board members from Florida had an
excellent relationship with the chairperson of the Congressional
Foreign Relations Committee. When the damages to Lebanon were
explained, as well the negative effects on the Palestinians and the
future of the so-called peace process, the resolution was tabled
without any need for lobbying. We were advised to encourage Lebanese
leaders to present a better solution. We subsequently became aware of
multiple existing drafts which we helped upgrade and update to make the
final document ready for signature by two senior presidential advisors,
one Christian & one Moslem to avoid any accusation of
confessionalism. But unfortunately, politicians did not agree on a
final format and we ended up presenting the solution options as an
academic project signed by a university professor. Since that time, to
our knowledge, the Palestinian’s nationalization issue has remained
dormant until now. We at ALF were encouraged by our success in helping
our country of origin within a unifying spirit, which was also
agreeable to our neighboring brethren. Since that time, ALF had
comments or offered solutions targeted at most Lebanese crises or
problems.
The
first problem we addressed was the Lebanese Government debt. We realize
we are academic or idealist but also with ideas amenable to application
and solutions. We sometimes heard good words from some friendly
politicians, always followed by “solutions take time”. We now know how
the indebtedness, while waiting for solutions, culminated in Lebanon’s
defection on Eurobonds with all the damage this caused to Lebanese
reputation and economy. When we reviewed what we wrote in June 2004 we
see that we were at that time putting all our hope in a presidential
election that could bring a team of president and prime minister who
could work together to establish the program that can start the gradual
debt reduction. We, now in 2022 are again anxiously awaiting a new
presidential election that can determine the chances for survival and
success of our country of origin. However now the risks are higher. The
geopolitical atmosphere in the Middle East is more difficult. And in
Lebanon the threats of starvation and chaos are real.
During
the past 18 years, ALF had comments or offered solutions targeted at
most Lebanese crises or problems. In November of 2018 the last ALF
position under the leadership of its founding president, focused
strongly against “Mouhasasa” & Corruption”. Our academic advise was
formation of a Unity Government, in which unity is based on
anti-corruption planning. Our rationale was that even the most corrupt
politicians would not dare defend corruption. Our recommendations were
unfortunately ignored and within less than one year later came the
October 17, 2019 anti-corruption protests with the “Kellun Ya’ni
Kellun”, accusing all Lebanese politicians of corruption. This happened
very shortly after our new ALF administration was duly elected and took
control of its responsibilities. We nevertheless presented idealized
but still practical solutions which were partially respected, but
however keeping the unfortunate “Mouhasasa or the division of the
cheese” as referred to by some older decent and more successful
previous politicians like President Fouad Chehab.
While Lebanon
is dangerously sliding towards poverty and chaos, politicians continue
to blame various vague issues, or just the “system”. Of course, the
presence of resistance arms outside control of the State presents an
incredible challenge. However, Lebanon miraculously survived for many
years without ever establishing a defensive strategy to determine how
the resistance could safely use its arms in coordination with the
Lebanese Army. Some Lebanese blame all Lebanon’s current troubles on
the resistance and its arms. ALF has long recognized that there are
some other neglected issues which contributed to Lebanon’s gradual
deterioration. We have always been concerned that Lebanon’s electoral
law never improved to allow true democratic representation and all
changes made over the years were always aimed to facilitate re-election
of the people in power or those wanted by the outside entity with
strong influence in Lebanon. While ALF has advocated attempts to
improve electoral laws by adopting the “one person, one vote” and
single districts or the smallest possible electoral districts, laws
were changed to create larger districts and relativity principles
directed towards securing the reelection of the persons working on
changing the law.
Despite the imperfections of the current
electoral law, ALF salutes the Lebanese electorate that managed to
elect some true reformists and other anti-status quo candidates. We are
pleased that no dominant outside entity loyalty group could have two
thirds of parliament to meet and elect a convenient, possibly corrupt
presidential candidate. That would be completely unsuitable to address
the current dangerous crisis. At the end of the term of Lebanon’s
current president the country needs a candidate that understands the
urgency priorities and can lead Lebanon into economic and financial
sanity and stability, while preserving and protecting the national
unity.
ALF now believes the results of the parliamentary
elections may allow the election of a savior presidential candidate,
capable of reuniting all segments of the Lebanese population and
reassuring all possible friends or benefactors to Lebanon. The new
president should inspire confidence due to impeccable reputation, high
education and international experience that will allow him or her to
negotiate with trust and respect. While we understand and admire the
courage of the protesters who coined the “ kellun ya’ni kellun”
terminology, We beg to allow us to believe that there is a small number
of exceptions. There are politicians known to some members of our
Executive and Advisory Boards who we feel are probably decent and not
significantly corrupt. Nevertheless, knowing the shortness of time
between now and the time a new president needs to be elected, it is not
possible to reliably verify fast enough the guilt versus innocence of
candidates with corruption rumors. Therefore, there should be serious
search for potential candidates from the ranks of Lebanese expatriate
or diplomatic community with known integrity and good reputation of
achievements and success. The new president should be able to address
and solve problems by the power of honest discussions and convictions
and hopefully be capable of avoiding unnecessary confrontations and
violence.
ALF has had past concerns about the negative effects
of any possible vacancy in the presidency and we proposed considering
subtle constitutional amendments to avoid such risk. However, none of
that was ever considered and under the current circumstances the best
constitutional solution is to schedule the election of the new
president two months before the end of the term of the current
president as we understand is stipulated in Lebanon’s current
constitution.
We and other expatriates may be dreaming, but we
are aware of Lebanese expatriates who became successful and famous
writing about black swans. We sincerely think that the persons with
characteristics that we described are the most needed and most
electable, freely, under current circumstances. Assuming such occurs
and nobody succeeded to steal Lebanon’s oil and gas, which we think
unlikely, knowing that the fake companies that may have possibly been
designed for such purposes have already bee outed in the media. We dare
then hope Lebanon may be prosperous again, before the end of 2023.
ALF
encourages all Lebanese to keep hope alive. All concerned, internally
or externally, should do everything possible to convince the new
parliament to elect a high caliber independent & unifying
president, to save Lebanon’s economy & financial status. We all
should also watch the news about Lebanon’s oil & gas negotiations
and make sure these natural resources are safe from corruption, in order to serve all Lebanese
equally and help the country to speed its return to stability and
prosperity.
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American
Lebanese Foundation